The Jacksonville Jaguars secured their division title in 2022; however, they experienced a notable regression in 2023, with performance falling short of heightened expectations. The team concluded the previous season with a record of 1-5 over their last six games.
Led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars aim to demonstrate their potential to advance out of the AFC and compete for a Super Bowl soon. In the offseason, Lawrence signed a five-year contract extension worth $275 million, which includes $200 million guaranteed at signing.
Since 2022, Lawrence has faced challenges, including 16 fumbles lost—the highest in the NFL during this period—and 38 turnovers, placing him second in the league behind Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
As the new season begins, one of the Jaguars’ greatest assets is the health of wide receiver Christian Kirk alongside Lawrence. The offense struggled last year when Kirk missed the final five games, and Lawrence was also dealing with injuries. The addition of wide receiver Gabe Davis and rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. should enhance the team’steam’s ability to stretch the field—a significant issue when Zay Jones was hampered by a knee injury throughout the previous season. This offense has the potential to outperform the 2022 unit, which ranked 10th in scoring and passing yards, and 9th in total yards.
Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas is expected to make a significant impact this season, particularly with Calvin Ridley now in Tennessee. This will create opportunities for Thomas, who hails from LSU, to contribute effectively to Coach Doug Pederson’s passing scheme. Thomas’s ability to gain separation speedily and track the ball will be beneficial, and Pederson can devise strategies to create intermediate openings for Lawrence.
The Jaguars retained four out of five starters from an offensive line that ranked 28th in run block win rate and 29th in pass block win rate, which raises some concerns. However, they made a notable improvement by acquiring veteran center Mitch Morse, who was recognized as the second-best run-blocking center in the league in 2023, replacing Luke Fortner. The team is counting on left guard Ezra Cleveland and right guard Brandon Scherff to maintain their health. If the offensive line can perform at an average level, it should lead to improved offensive success.
We anticipate the Jaguars achieving nine wins this season. Additionally, cornerback Tyson Campbell has experienced two challenging seasons (2021 and 2023), contrasted with a standout season in 2022. Expectations are high for him to rebound closer to his performance in 2022, during which he allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap or fewer.
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